O trabalho “The determinants of player transfers in Brazil: the role of expectations in the football market“, de autoria de Rafael Kujo Monteiro, aluno do Curso de Economia da PUCPR, em coautoria com os professores Rodolfo Prates e Leonardo Frota, foi publicado pelo periódico internacional “Applied Economics”, um dos mais importantes do mundo na área de economia aplicada. Você pode ler o trabalho clicando aqui. Ao final desta postagem seguem o resumo e as palavras-chave do trabalho.
The study of the football transfer market is relevant to understanding the clubs’ managerial capacity when they trade their most important assets. So far, the research on football transfers has focused mainly on the movements between European clubs. We use a two-step Heckman correction to account first for variables that affect the probability of a transfer and later, the actual transfer fee. We include an innovative index to capture the players’ ability to perform according to the specialists’ expectations. Our results show that besides appreciating the specific characteristics of the player such as age and nationality, the Brazilian market also considers the capacity of a player to fulfill previous expectations when deciding who is transferred and for what price. Finally, the remaining time of the contract and the recent transfer history of the player also affect transfer movements in Brazil, along with the seller club’s performance.
Keywords: Football; transfers; Heckman; Brazil; expectations.